Pattern changes of ecological product trade in countries along the Belt and Road.

The Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) was designed to promote economic and trade cooperation between countries along the Belt and Road (B&R), specifically by building an international trade network. Ecological resources are the basis for human survival. Countries along the B&R transform ecological resources into ecological products by production activities. These products can then be used for trade, thereby driving the countries' economic development. This study uses net primary productivity (NPP) as a unified measure of ecological products, and explores the pattern changes of ecological product trade in countries along the B&R, from 2013 to 2019 (from the BRI proposal to the outbreak of COVID-19). The purpose of the study is to reveal the impact of the BRI on the trade of ecological products. The results show that (1) the trade scale of ecological products in the B&R region has changed significantly. The total volume of traded ecological products increased from 2071.74 to 2631.00 TgC. This represented an increase of about 26.99%, or 7.41% higher than the global average. (2) The spatial distribution pattern of ecological product trade did not change significantly in countries along the B&R. However, the gravity centers of the total and net trade volume of ecological products moved 120.74 km to the northeast and 392.98 km to the southeast, respectively. (3) The trade structure of ecological products in the B&R region, six sub-regions, and most countries remained relatively stable. Only the proportion of the livestock products trade in Mongolia and the proportion of the forest products trade in Bhutan have increased significantly. This finding suggests that the strength and breadth of the construction of unimpeded trade in countries along the B&R still need to further strengthened, in order to accelerate the realization of the vision of the Green Silk Road.

Risk of Global External Cereals Supply under the Background of the COVID-19 Pandemic: Based on the Perspective of Trade Network.

International food trade is an integral part of the food system, and the COVID-19 pandemic has exposed the fragility of external food supplies. Based on the perspective of cereals trade networks (CTN), the pandemic risk is combined with the trade intensity between countries, and an assessment model of cereals external supply risk is constructed that includes external dependence index (EDI), import concentration, and risk of COVID-19 from import countries index (RICI). The results show that: (1) the global main CTN have typical scale-free characteristics, and seven communities are detected under the influence of the core countries; (2) about 60%, 50%, and 70% of countries face risks of medium and above (high and very high) external dependence, concentration of imports, and COVID-19 in the country of origin, respectively. Under the influence of the pandemic, the risk of global external cereal supply index (RECSI) has increased by 65%, and the USA-CAN communities show the highest risk index; (3) the countries with a very high risk are mainly the Pacific island countries and the Latin American and African countries. In addition, Japan, Mexico, South Korea, and 80% of the net food-importing developing countries are at high or very high RECSI levels. Approximately 50% of countries belong to the compound risk type, and many export countries belong to the RICI risk type; (4) global external food supply is subjected to multiple potential threats such as trade interruption, "price crisis", and "payment dilemma". The geographical proximity of community members and the geographical proximity of the pandemic risk is superimposed, increasing the regional risk of external food supply; and (5) this study confirms that the food-exporting countries should avoid the adoption of food export restriction measures and can prevent potential external supply risks from the dimensions of maintaining global food liquidity and promoting diversification of import sources. We believe that our assessment model of cereals external supply risk comprises a useful method for investigations regarding the international CTN or global food crisis under the background of the pandemic.